April 21, 2018

Constitution Wingers and Modification

The majority community is constitutionally choked by secular parties and the concerns of the majority community were supposed to be addressed by Modi. But Modi does not seem to be spending any of his hard earned political capital to address the issues which are deemed to be communal in nature by the intellectuals causing heart burn to the intellectuals of the Constitutional Wing. Constitutional Wing consists of individuals who want the Bharat to reclaim its ancient glory, liberal in thought, want equality of law and upliftment of the poor. Most of the Left Wing do not become part of the Constitutional Wing and the cultural right wing will mostly from the Constitutional Wing of the discourse. Modi was supposed to work for fulfilling the ambitions of the Constitutional wing but he seem to be mostly pandering to the left wing and the economic right wing. Even though Modi/BJP is winning elections there is a small dis-satisfaction among the Constitutional Wingers. Even I would tell Modi that his Vikas barrel has gone empty.

In the digital era the numbers will always tell a story. To understand what Modi is doing a few numbers from the previous polls has been taken and simple calculations were done to see the effect and the efforts of Mod i- The Man of the Moment. The data for all this is taken from the election commission website where provisional data is available or all the elections. First the total votes polled for the BJP, Congress (INC)  in state elections (-S) and General elections (-C) are calculated. For the BJP state election votes for the year 2009 is taken as the sum of the votes of BJP for all the state elections for five years ie., 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005. By doing this way, we can know the way the votes have been polled in the run up to the central elections and also the wave effect posts the central elections. The Modi magic is clearly visible in the 2014 elections and his efforts alone have lifted the votes polled for the BJP (Figure1). Here INC-C means the votes for INC in the given general elections and INC-S means the votes polled for five years in state elections. Since the voting takes place on various issues such as caste, religion, gender, emotions, allies, etc which have both positive effect and negative effect and hence all these issues are neglected. Also the strength of the political party is based purely on the number of voters who are willing to give vote to it.

In the Figure 1 it is evident that if not for the Modi wave, the so called 160 club and the D4 would have continued to rule the roost because he BJP numbers appeared to be on a slow decline. The 2019 data is yet to completed because of the elections that are to happen in the future but the votes for the BJP and congress in the various state elections tell the trend that BJP voters are still voting for Modi and BJP has a significant lead and the recently concluded Gujarat and Himachal votes are not included.

The Figure 2 tells the vote share of the BJP and INC in the various elections. The % vote share is calculated as percentage of sum of votes polled for the party in the year divided by the total votes polled in the year. In case of the % vote share in state elections, the five year period is taken as done for the total votes polled which is explained earlier.  Again the 2014 % vote share of the BJP in the central elections and the slight improvement in the lead up to the 2014 elections confirm the Modi wave. Also the 2019 % votes share lead indicates that the Modi wave does not seem to be falling down but continues to rise and maintain the same levels.

Figure 3 gives information regarding the polling percentage. The efforts of the election commission have to be appreciated and also the various change agents who have made the festival of democracy be celebrated more widely. Among the Right wing groups it is a accepted myth that certain communities always make sure they go and vote for the candidate of their choice while other communities are too lazy to go out and vote. With the increase in the polling percentage, it can be only be better for everyone and also helps in creating a competitive fear psychosis and leads to increased polling by all communities. The effects of polarization and reverse polarization are meaningless and thus have no value in any elections because the two phenomenons happen at the same time. All that Modi has to do is to convince the new voters to vote for him and ensure that the most stubborn and lazy ones take their time out and vote for him.

Even though the Constitutional wing aspirations are not taken care by Modi, more and more people are coming out to vote for Modi. This we can say because from 2015 till day in most of the state elections that have happened it is Modi who has been winning and thus his support is continuing to grow.  Some things are not understood when the work is in progress and hence we can say that Modification Is In Progress and some other leader has to take up the issue of Constitutional Wingers because Modi has number proof that he doing something right else BJP’s voters would not turn up in such large numbers.

Picture Credit: Rishabh’s Lens

Disclaimer

 

About Vijendra Bhat 104 Articles
Currently working as an Assistant Professor in an Engineering College in Udupi district, Karnataka. Earlier Worked in Steel Foundry Industry for 6 years. Interested in the politics and revival of Bharat.
Contact: Twitter