August 16, 2018

NaMo and 2019

The political see-saw is intriguing.

The by-poll results in UP and Bihar wiped out the euphoria of the North-East results , BJP is now back to square one.

The dissection is underway on TV, News media and the social network. The ecstatic opposition honchos are out writing the epitaph of BJP. Considering the fact that such winning moments have become rare in recent years, they can hardly be blamed for going overboard over the achievements in the by-polls and dreaming big of a victory in the next general elections.

There are three takeaways from the results; firstly, alarm bells must be ringing in the BJP ranks because it’s now amply clear that the BJP is vulnerable in the event the entire opposition unites and the voter turnout is low.

Secondly, alarm bells must be ringing in the Congress camp because the abysmal performance has firmly swung the initiative to lead an united Opposition away from it.

Thirdly, the alarm bells must be ringing pretty loud and clear among the citizens for a simple reason that if such results get extrapolated to the general elections then they be expected to be ruled by a bunch of misfits.

Although it’s a worrying trend for the BJP, they still can find solace in the fact that their support base remains intact. That said , the BJP has to reinvent itself – it now cannot afford to rely on Modi alone to draw in the crowds and the votes. The promise of ‘Acche Din’ may not resonate with the restless electorate anymore, they now want ‘Aur Acche Din’.

BJP’s obsession with Congress has ensured the almost complete annihilation of the ‘Grand Old Party’. Although the regional satraps sound nonchalant, the threat of the saffron invasion does instill fear in their hearts.

The desperation is growing both within the Congress and the regional outfits to somehow come together to put up a united front to thwart another term for Modi . It’s this desperation that compels unholy wedlock like the one that was witnessed in UP between arch rivals Samajwadi and BSP. There could be more to come, and no one should be surprised if even the Commies and Trinamool sink their differences to emerge on the same platform.

Desperation in the form of manufactured agitation like the one witnessed in Koregaon where Jignesh Mevani and minorities could be found pouring fuel to a raging castiest fire.

Desperation in the form of manufactured agrarian distress like the one that was sponsored by the Communists with the complete support of parties like NCP, Congress and even the Shiv Sena. Just when we thought that what’s left of the ‘Left’ is only left in Kerala, thirty thousand farmers wearing red caps adorned with the ‘hammer & sickle’ ensignia marched into Mumbai threatening to lay siege to the Vidhana Sabha forcing the Devendra Fadnavis led BJP to buckle under pressure.

Frequency of such agitations will increase multi-fold in the run-up to the elections.

Further, restless allies will ramp up the discontentment charade to bargain hard for a bigger role and better seat share . Some will try to wriggle out on one pretext or other with an intention to keep their options open in line with the oscillating political equations of their respective states. TDP has gone ahead and done it . Special status is just a ruse.

Finally, nothing lasts forever but people assuming that Modi is a spent force will only end-up committing political suicide. Likewise people claiming that ‘Achhe Din’ is ‘India Shining’ moment of Modi are severely underestimating the multifaceted strengths of Modi and the BJP election fighting machine.

Modi will remain an enigma to his opponents even in 2019.

@bobsimhan

 

Picture Credit: Screenshot from Twitter

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About Narsimhan OSL 102 Articles
Consultant for Auto-LPG based in Hyderabad. He has interest in current affairs, likes to read a lot and write a bit.
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