April 19, 2019

Swing Voters

82 crore voters and more have to decide the kind of governance that India deserves and every single vote does not count. Because of various reasons all the voters are not going to the polling booths and hence those who vote matter. Also the current brand of NOTA voters who are the second biggest Hippocrates on the planet are a source of confusion to the political parties. The numero Uno Hippocrates are the one who call themselves secular. If the efforts of the Election Commission become fruitful then in 2019 the voting percentage can touch 70% and it means that around 58 crore voters are actually going to deliver their votes to the parties of their choice.

The most important issue in any election that happens in India is the religion and caste. Since the BJP is labeled as Hindu party by all others, it becomes the defacto identity of BJP which it tries to shun and opts to put on a secular lipstick. In this scenario all other parties become either anti-Hindu parties or they become party that represents the interests of a set of religions and castes. With around 80% Hindu population in India and 20% non Hindu population in India, we can say that BJP should win elections hands down in every election. In reality the opposite happens because every other party wins elections because BJP cannot win a particular election.

It is a matter of fact that non-Hindus tend to use the power of their vote and various democratic rights more than the Hindus and have thus gained superiority constitutional matters. It is another fact that is never said loud that Hindus have been the victims of constitution and it is the Hindus who have fight the constitutional bodies to get equality in several matters of governance. All these matters happen because the Hindus have been divided over their collective identity while the non-Hindus bargain as a unit and share the fruits of the democracy. This collective bargaining is absent and each sub group called caste tends to fight its rival groups over several issues in the end serving the interests of non-Hindus.

Among the 82 crore voters there would be 66 crore (80%) Hindu voters and 16 crore (20%) non-Hindu voters. Let us assume that around 90% of non-Hindu eligible voters come to vote and around 60% of eligible Hindu voters come to vote on the day of elections. In such a case 40 crore (60%) Hindu voters would vote and 15 crore (90%) non-Hindu voter would vote. Thus the sum would be around 55 crore and this number is less by 3 crore voters i.e. 70% of voters who would cast. Hence if the EC gets successful in increasing the voting percentage, the number must come from the Hindu side much more than the non-Hindu side. But owing to the lethargy of Hindu voters let us divide it equally among the two groups. Hence let there be 41.5 crore Hindu votes and 16.5 non-Hindu votes in the EVM that are going to decide the fate of the elections of 2019.

Even the ratio of population between Hindus and non-Hindus 4:1, the ratio turns to 2.5:1 when it comes to the voting and choosing the government of the day. What is more interesting is that the division votes among the non-Hindus would be very minimal and might not affect the outcome in most places. But the division of Hindu votes due to the caste issue playing out during elections results more significant. With Hindus divided along the caste lines and the IoI laws ensured that one set of castes are given government benefits, while the other set is kept away inspite of having nearly same historical issues. So there is a highly probability that the Hindu vote would get split right in the middle and thus we can guess that among the 41.5 crore Hindu voters around 21 crore voters would vote for Hind issues while the rest would vote for caste issues. So effectively over 20 crore voters would have their loyalties in the swing or their votes get divided among the various caste parties.

If the BJP wants to get back to power, it need not worry much about the non-Hindu voters because of several ideological issues. The BJP has to worry about the 20 crore swing voters who are going to various parties along the caste lines. The IoI laws have ensured that this becomes a near impossible task as appeasing one group will cause heartburn to the other and thus it becomes easier to appease the non-Hindu groups because of the semi literacy of citizens the truth of various non-Hindu groups and their ideologies are not known to many. It becomes easier to try to get the non-Hindu votes than the swing Hindu votes. It might for this reason that the BJP always tries to go after the non-Hindu votes when in power and go after the Hindu votes when out of power.

So in effect if we remove this swing voters in the contest between the Hindu party and non-Hindu together with casteist parties the ratio of voters is 1.25:1. It is a neck to neck to fight for the BJP and all the non-Hindu and casteist parties is to make is cause disaffection in one group that favours the BJP. Also the non-Hindu and casteist parties have to cause disaffection among the various categories of voters like farmers, salaried class, soldier, core groups, temple growers, business class, etc to reduce the vote share of the BJP. It is because of these sub factions/identities that are stronger than the alleged Hindu identity the Hindu side is always divided as a million sub groups. How the BJP manages to get the swing voters to its side is the challenge to Modi-Shah combine and it is going to be a humongous task. To win with a chance of 1.25:1 takes a lot of efforts and Hindus should strive to forget their local micro identities and work towards to making this ratio as large as possible to get the government that protects its interests.

With the various local variations and the hidden Trojans called communists and converts among the Hindus the ratio 1.25:1 would further reduce. Pappy and his ilk are waiting for the population bomb to explode in selective areas so as to further skew this ratio. With local population exploding the national ratio of 1.25:1 would look good on paper but at the local level this ratio might be the other way around and the seat is lost forever just like it has happened in Kashmir and a few other localities. The BJP should decide on the agenda to get the Swing Voters and definitely it has to be based on Hindu identity.

Picture Credit: Rishabh’s Lens


About Vijendra Bhat 141 Articles
Currently working as an Assistant Professor in an Engineering College in Udupi district, Karnataka. Earlier Worked in Steel Foundry Industry for 6 years. Interested in the politics and revival of Bharat.
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