October 19, 2017

‘UP’ for Grabs..

pari - war

Maybe if we were in the Mughal era,  Akhilesh would have thrown his father Mulayam in a jail, left to rot for daring to dethrone him. Or the vice-versa could have happened.

But we live in a much more civilised era where no such thing happens. All that can happen now is the split up of Samajwadi Party.

The game of brinkmanship is at its zenith, it has been simmering for a while now and the expectation was that the ‘Pari-War’ would remain undercover at least until the elections are over. But the game took a turn for the worse, and only time will tell who is worse-off, Mulayam or Akhilesh.

A split Samajwadi Party is a doomed Party and could bring down the curtains on its patriarch Mulayam and his egotistic brother Shivpal.

An untethered Akhilesh with his popularity base among the Samajwadi supporters intact will forge alliances and could remain a relevant force in UP politics. He stands a chance to come back to power in the event of a hung Assembly.

Split Samajwadi is good news to Rahul, he will leave no stone unturned to cozy-up to Akhilesh and strike an alliance. Rahul verywell realises that Akhilesh on his own dosen’t stand a chance to retain power, and Ideological differences prevent Akhilesh from allying with BJP or BSP, hence Congress is his only option.

Rahul who was staring at another whitewash in UP suddenly finds a glimmer of hope in Samajwadi split.

Muslim vote will gravitate decisively in favor of a Akhilesh and Rahul if at all an alliance is forged.

Mayawati must be elated, a split Samajwadi Part gives her ambitions a fillip. But still, BSP has its task cutout, it sadly isn’t a force that it once was.  The dalit vote-bank isn’t intact anymore and the Muslims might not be inclined to back her, just yet.

It’s a windfall for BJP. A split Yadav vote-bank works to its advantage, a sizable chunk of Yadav’s can be weaned into its fold. Similarly a disgrunted dalit electorate may desert BSP and vote for BJP. All BJP has to do is to hang on to its traditional voter base to return back to power in Uttra Pradesh after a long sabbatical.

But, DeMonetisation is the JOKER in this game of rummy. Will it bolster MODI’s chances in UP or will it derail the MODI juggernaut ?

Only time will tell !!!

Picture Credit: The Hans India

@bobsimhan


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About Narsimhan OSL 84 Articles
Consultant for Auto-LPG based in Hyderabad. He has interest in current affairs, likes to read a lot and write a bit.
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